3). She currently is participating in the SPE Long Range Planning Committee and cochairing a steering committee for a Middle East Colloquium in Petroleum Engineering Education. Cell phones, computers, radios, watches, and many other devices rely for their success on an electronic oscillator that produces an output with a precise frequency to generate timing pulses and synchronize events. A typical reflection paper is between 300 and 700 words long. stfu and watch for those who watching rn alam ko na pinagagawa din kayo ng sir/mam nyo nga ganito hahahahah The average of multiple plans is often worse than any single plan. Explains that technology refers to a wide range of electronic materials and learning methods, including video production, distance learning, and smart classrooms. PayPals major challenge, for example, was not finding a market like eBay power sellers, but coping with fraud as they scaled, which apparently was the undoing of any number of rivals., Personally, I was still using Dogpile until at least 2000.. Thiel uses the example of New France/the Louisiana Territory, in which the projections of John Law et al that it (and thus the Mississippi Company) would be as valuable as France itself turned out to be correctjust centuries later, with the benefits redounding to the British colonies. It is surprising that some have never tried or attempted to keep off technology even for a day. The road to wisdom?Well, its plain And so, we see, in our world around half such attempts fail completely, and 5% or so go to the moon. Format and timing Fails to meet minimum page requirements Submitted late : Barely meets the 15 page minimum requirement. Learning can occur in many forms and situations. When a participant crosses the finish line, the RFID tag is read by an RFID reader which transmits the tag's ID to the timing software. Here again we must be pessimistic. First of all, you'd wake up late because your smartphone alarm no longer exists. Those who lump oil in the energy mix as though it competes with coal, nuclear, and renewable energy resources have missed a crucial point. If Blockbusters CEO had paid a pittance ~2000 to acquihire Netflix & put Reed Hastings in charge, or if it had simply stuck with its CEO in 2007 to strangle Netflix with Total Access, its shareholders would be far better off now. This explores all options initially but gradually homes in on the most profitable option to exploit most of the time, while still occasionally exploring all the other options once in a while, just in case; strictly speaking Thompson sampling will never ban an option permanently, the probability of selecting an option merely becomes vanishingly rare. As Bill Gates says, I can give you fifty examples of ideas theyve had where, if you take just one of them, youd have a startup company right there. Indeedthat this model works demonstrates the commonness of multiples, the worthless of ideas, and the moral bankruptcy of the current patent system., At the margin, compared to other competitors in the VR space, like Valves concurrent efforts, and everything that the Rift built on, did Luckey and co really create ~$2.95$2.302014b of new value? A more practical approach is to embrace uncertainty, taking a reinforcement learning perspective. Everything of importance has been said before by somebody who did not discover it. Yes, but when I discovered it, it stayed discovered. What was systemic in Hrleins way of thinking was his concept of the organizational pattern or patterns that will best facilitate the production of valuable results in the areas in which medicine and chemistry interact. Jorge Luis Borges, Kafka And His Precursors (1951). It is a time for Muslims to deepen their connection to God and to practice compassion and kindness towards others. Since people tend to systematically over-exploit, how is this implemented? Such an attitude is similar to the DARPA paradigm in fostering AI & computing, a rational process of connecting the dots between here and there intended to orchestrate the advancement of an entire suite of technologies, with responsibilities split between multiple project managers each given considerable autonomy for several years. But this animal does not figure among the domestic animals, it is not easy to find, it does not lend itself to any classification. Why did we wait so long for the bicycle?). The study is a descriptive one based on qualitative research. : Custom Type-Curve Generation for Pressure Transient Analysis of Elongated Linear Flow Systems,, Moran, J.H., and Finklea, E.E. Verify whether or not your instructor specified a word count for the paper instead of merely following this average. Counting for inflation, probably more money was spent [than] than Facebook just spent on Oculus. First, how do you use discoveries from the past more than other scientists do? Reflections on Timing and Technology Christine Ehlig-Economides reflects on her career and how being in the right place at the right time has made all the difference. This, too, was an ill-conceived notion, because the flowmeter sensor could accurately record only a few minutes of data before the flow rate dropped below its accuracy range. Be still. Because of the winner-take-all dynamics, theres no way to solve the coordination problem of holding off on an approach until the prerequisites are in place: entrepreneurs and founders will be hurling themselves at an common goal like social networks or VR constantly, just on the off chance that maybe the prerequisites just became adequate and theyll be able to eat everyones lunch. Launching too early means failure, but being conservative & launching later is just as bad because regardless of forecasting, a good idea will draw overly-optimistic researchers or entrepreneurs to it like moths to a flame: all get immolated but the one with the dumb luck to kiss the flame at the perfect instant, who then wins everything, at which point everyone can see that the optimal time is past. He saw a need for government support of appropriate institutions, especially research institutes in universities. From 1980 to 1983, she was an assistant professor at the U. of AlaskaFairbanks, where she became Petroleum Engineering Dept. How do you time your startup? Certainty is irrelevant, you still have problems making use of this knowledge. The small groups simply polluted the genetic literature with false positives, which are still gradually being debunked and purged. Secrets of Sand Hill Road: Venture Capital and How to Get It, by Scott Kupor 2019 (a16z), excerpts, In a strange way, sometimes familiarity can breed contemptand conversely, the distance from the problem that comes from having a completely different professional background might actually make one a better founder. After all, during a buildup, the downhole flow rate was rapidly approaching zero. In 1983, she joined Flopetrol Johnston Schlumberger in Melun, France. Translation, Katsuki Sekida, Two Zen Classics: The Gateless Gate and The Blue Cliff Records, 2005., Which as a side note is wrong; compiled predictions actually indicate that AI researcher forecasts, while varying anywhere from a decade to centuries, typically cluster around 20 years in the future regardless of researcher age. Dasmarias, Cavite College of Business and Technology. Question Your Life: Naikan Self-Reflection and the Transformation of Our Stories - Gregg Krech. Positive feedback about physical-exam skills or clinical decision-making occurred during encounters, positive or constructive team-based feedback occurred immediately following encounters, and individualized constructive feedback occurred in one-on-one settings following rounding sessions. Well differentiate with a funny safety video and by not being aholes. The Journal of Petroleum Technology, the Society of Petroleum Engineers flagship magazine, presents authoritative briefs and features on technology advancements in exploration and production, oil and gas industry issues, and news about SPE and its members. (Checking a few random entries in Wikipedia, as of 2012, maybe a fifth of the companies are publicly traded, and the private ones include the ones you mightve heard of like Boston Robotics or Kiva so that will be a small unrepresentative index.) Information and Communication Technology covering the topics of: The current state of ICT technologies (i.e., Web 2.0, 3.0, convergent technologies, social, mobile, and assistive media) Online systems, functions, and platforms. We can think of the prototypes as 23 different attempts to describe the inevitable generic lightbulb. Bloomberg News. Even the Mississippi Company worked out: The ships that went abroad on behalf of his great company began to turn a profit. So I read a lot of old papers. If your instructor demands a word count outside of this range, meet your instructor's requirements. Jr.: Drawdown Behavior of a Well With Storage and Skin Effect Communicating With Layers of Different Radii and Other Characteristics, paper SPE 7453 presented at the 1978 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, October 13, Houston. Overall, the odds of success are low, and the rewards are not great for mostdespite the skewed distribution producing occasional eye-popping returns in a few cases, the risk-adjusted return of the technology sector or VC funds is not that much greater than the broader economy. Reindex into what, another doomed firm?). In a recent poll [8], thirty-five out of forty-two people engaged in this sort of research gave estimates between ten and one hundred years. He had to intervene where necessary to minimize friction between chemists and medical researchers, an especially important task for chemotherapy as a composite entity. What if you believed the story they were trying to tell us: that each year, as sure as winter follows summer, and day follows night, computers would get half again better, and half again smaller, and half again cheaper, year after year, and that in 5 decades they would be 30 million times more powerful than they were then, and cheap. Further, people in general appear to overexploit & underexplore, exacerbating the problemeven if the expected value of a startup (or experimentation, or R&D in general) is positive for individuals. Every authentic solution brings in its wake a train of grotesque solutions. This includes timers, clocks and etc. It's frustrating to desire somethinga solution, position, experience, relationship, or possessionbut sense the Lord saying "no" or "not now.". On phones! For my last 4 years in Schlumberger, I was permitted to work about 1 day a week with the U. of Houston, where I was appointed Director of the Petroleum Engineering Program. September 5, 2005 By Christine A. Ehlig-Economides The Way Ahead "All the problems of the world could be settled if people were only willing to think. 30 years later, its the same headlines. Reflections on Technology In the modern world, big and better technologies have been invented. And at some point, it does improve, and the first person to try at the right time may win the lottery; Palmer Luckey (founder of Oculus, sold to Facebook for $2.95$2.302014 billion in March20144): Heres a secret: the thing stopping people from making good VR and solving these problems was not technical. but less They were correct, but many of them would be surprised & disappointed how long it took., #326, Part II. She is internationally recognized for expertise in reservoir engineering, pressure-transient analysis, integrated reservoir characterization, complex well design, and production enhancement. After 7 of my 20 years with Schlumberger, I left transient-test analysis for several other pursuits, and as before, my timing continued to be great. Teslas struggles in general are too well known to mention (such as Musk asking Apple to acquire them in 2017 in the depths of Tesla Model 3 manufacturing crisis when weeks from collapse). I was actually reading some earlier papers. If so, you might spend some of your hypothetical money on whatever the best approximation to a robotics index fund you can find, as the best of a bunch of bad choices. Soon after this experience, I decided to pursue a PhD degree in petroleum engineering. Firefox: we are going to build a better web browser, even though 90% of the worlds computers already have a free one built in. Thiel (Zero to One; original): Every moment in business happens only once. My best timing was meeting my husband of nearly 30 years, Michael Economides. When it was my turn, I couldnt resist pointing out in my introductory remarks that I was not yet born 25 years before. This bears a resemblance to startup rates over time: an initial burst of enthusiasm for a new option, when it still has high prior probability of being the most profitable option at the moment, triggers a bunch of startups selecting that option, but then when they fail, the posterior probability drops substantially; however, even if something now looks like a bad idea, there will still be people every once in a while who insist on trying again anyway, and, because the probability is not 0, once in a while they succeed wildly and everyone is astonished that so, X is a thing now!, In DARPAs research funding and VC, they often arent looking for a plan which looks good on average to everyone, or which no one can find any particular problem with, but something closer to a plan which at least one person thinks could be awesome for some reason. From pg48, A System of Invention, Lesch2006: Hrleins attitude was based not simply, or even primarily, on the situation of any particular area of research considered in isolation, but on his comprehensive overview of advance in areas in which chemistry and biomedicine intersected. Scott et al 2019, McKenzie&Sansone2019). Are we running out of oil and gas? They use their discretion to surface proposals that have at least one champion, regardless of whether there are any detractorsThe results show that there is greater ex ante uncertainty in the ARPA-E research portfolio compared to proposals with the highest mean scores (Model1). One idea is that a VC firm could explicitly track ideas that seem great but have had several failed startups, and try to schedule additional investments at ever greater intervals (similar to DS-PRL), which bounds losses (if the idea turns out to be truly a bad idea after all) but ensures eventual success (if a good one). Each one plans, invests & commits to push results as hard as possible through to commercial viability, and then pivots as necessary when the plan inevitably fails. Dj vu, because what was described in TML on every other page is recognizably ordinary life in the 1990s and 2000s, never mind the 2010s, from the spread of broadband to the eventual impact of smartphones. : Theoretical Analysis of Pressure Phenomena Associated With the Wireline Formation Tester,. Yet the principle of unripe time, distilled by F. M. Cornford [15] more than half a century ago from the changeless stream of Cambridge academic life, has provided the epitaph of more than one premature technology. We tried something, or somebody else tried something, and it didnt work. The electric incandescent lightbulb was invented, reinvented, coinvented, or first invented dozens of times. To the extent that VC/startups stampede into particular sectors, this leads to inefficiency of the first timewere so many green energy startups necessary? and less Why are success and failure so intertwined in the tech industry? Another time, we had to ask our employees to hold their paychecks while we waited for the next wave of financingFred dumped his entire inheritance into the company and was full speed ahead without concern for his personal finances. It connects users to International Business Machines (IBM), UNIX, Linux, Open Virtual Memory System (OpenVMS), and Hewlett Packard (HP) applications from their desktops. (Academics invent ideas about computers, which then go into mass production for business needs, which result in exponential decreases in costs, sparking countless academic applications of computers, yielding more applied results which can be commercialized, and so on in a virtuous circle.) Only then could the new technology claim to have drawn level with Babbages design ideas of a hundred years earlier. At one time I considered writing a study of Kafkas precursors. ARPA-E PDs tend to agree with the bulk of reviewers, and they also tend to agree with scores in the upper tail of the distribution. How often did I read in the 90s and early 00s about how amazing Japanese cellphones were and how amazing a good smartphone would be, even though year after year the phones were jokes and used pretty much solely for voice? In the hypothetical that you didnt know the name of the company, you mightve bought up a bunch of Google stock hoping that Orkut would be the winner, but while that wouldve been a decent investment (yay!) Neither of these technologies was a valid alternative to the use of the pressure derivative, but it took a few years for the industry to see it that way. This balances overall exploitation & exploration to progress as fast as possible, showing the usefulness of technological forecasting on a global level despite its uselessness to individuals. After all, why would they say no? Why would anyone think that the future of smartphones would be won by a has-been 1980s PC maker and an obscure search engine? And Lanier implies that Japan alone spent a lot of money: Jaron Lanier: The components have finally gotten cheap enough that we can start to talk about them as being accessible in the way that everybodys always wantedMoores law is so interesting because its not just the same components getting cheaper, but it really changes the way you do things. Ehlig-Economides has published more than 50 papers, has authored two patents, and has lectured or consulted in more than 30 countries. Within industrial research organizationsand, implicitly, within academic onesHrlein called for special institutional arrangements to encourage appropriate interactions between chemistry and biomedicine. Self-reflection is the simple and altruistic art of looking inward into one's true persona. Reverse salients are areas of research and development that are lagging in some obvious way behind the general line of advance. Bible verses about God's perfect timing. From Frock2006, Changing How the World Does Business: Fedexs Incredible Journey to Success, in 1973: On several occasions, we came within an inch of failure, because of dwindling financial resources, regulatory roadblocks, or unforeseen events like the Arab oil embargo. We remember the successes, and see only how they were sure to succeed, forgetting the failures, which vanish from memory and seem laughable and grotesque should we ever revisit them as they fumble towards what we can now see so clearly. A more practical approach is to embrace uncertainty, taking a reinforcement learning perspective. Well: researchers have a slight conflict of interest in the matter, and are happy to spend arbitrary amounts of money on topics without anything to show for it. After solving a problem, humanity imagines that it finds in analogous solutions the key to all problems. How we decide by Jonah Lehrer. Again, the issue with adoption is that the timing is so damn hard. In recent times, corporate research has diminished, and that may be a bad thing: The changing structure of American innovation: Some cautionary remarks for economic growth, Arora et al 2020., One might appeal to the Kelly criterion as a guide to how much individuals should wager on experiments, since the Kelly criterion gives optimal growth of wealth over the long-term while avoiding gamblers ruin, but given the extremely small number of wagers an individual engages in, with a highly finite horizon, the Kelly criterions assumptions are far from satisfied, and the true optimal strategy can be radically different from a naive Kelly criterion; I explore this difference more in The Kelly Coin-flipping Game, which is motivated by stock-market investing., Thompson sampling, incidentally, has been rediscovered, PSRL (posterior sampling, see also Ghavamzadeh et al 2016) generalizes Thompson sampling to more complex problems, MDPs or POMDPs in general, by for each iteration, assuming an entire collection or distribution of possible environments which are more complex than a single-step bandit, picking an environment at random based on its probability of being the real environment, finding the optimal actions for that one, and then acting on that solution; this does the same thing in smoothly balancing exploration with exploitation. In hindsight the things that worked look like good ideas and the ones that failed look stupid, but sadly its not that obvious at the time. The system as a whole can be seen in RL terms. If the latter, how could IP or economics be fixed to more closely link intermediate contributions to the final result to more closely approach a fairer distribution like the Shapley value than contributions being commoditized, yielding last-mover winner-take-all dynamics?. Something happened that made the world different. This seemingly small result led to a modeling revolution for pressure-transient testing. The different pathologies might be: small ones will collectively try lots of strange or novel ideas but will fail by running underpowered poorly-done experiments (for lack of funding & expertise) which convince no one, suffer from small-study biases, and merely pollute the literature, giving meta-analysts migraines. Want to read all 2 pages? He could spot the points where the enemys line was broken, and the reverse salients in his own. The idea of VR was that straightforward an extrapolation of computer monitors, it was that overdetermined, and so compelling that VR pioneers resemble nothing so much as moths to the flame, garnering grants in the hopes that this time things will improve. Its just nobody was paying attention to that. For many claims, there is no way to invest in an idea except by going all in and launching a company, resulting in extreme variance in outcomes, even when the idea is good and the forecasts correct about the (eventual) outcome. She recently became Director of the Center for Energy, Environment, and Transportation Innovation in the Crisman Inst. Nanosystems on a chip, is said to be able to provide critical foundation to diagnostics biomarkers and point-of-care technologies as well as detection of pathogen. 64): BOYDEN: One idea is, how do we find the diamonds in the rough, the big ideas but theyre kind of hidden in plain sight? The trouble is that people very often resort to all sorts of devices in order not to think, because thinking is such hard work. Thomas John Watson Sr., 18741956. He regarded the chemical attack on disease as a many-fronted battle in which there was a generally advancing line but also many points at which advance was slow or arrested. EMPOWERMENT TECHNOLOGY REFLECTION (2nd Quarter) Technology is taking over our world. iOS: a brand new operating system that doesnt run a single one of the millions of applications that have been developed for Mac OS, Windows, or Linux. I read a lot of things that might be forgotten because I think that theres a lot of treasure hiding in plain sight. 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Professor at the U. of AlaskaFairbanks, where she became Petroleum engineering Formation Tester.. Based on qualitative research Muslims to deepen their connection to God and to practice compassion kindness... Stampede into particular sectors, this leads to inefficiency of the Center for energy, Environment, and Transportation in. Time I considered writing a study of Kafkas Precursors from 1980 to 1983, she joined Flopetrol Johnston in. Submitted late: Barely meets the 15 page minimum requirement incandescent lightbulb was,., the issue with adoption is that the timing is so damn.. Did we wait so long for the bicycle? ) people tend to systematically,!

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