The core question that Podhorzers analysis raises is how the United States will function with two sections that are moving so far apart. In 2018, Pritzker made easy work out of predecessor Bruce Rauners reelection bid, routing the one-term Republican by nearly 16 percentage points. He also lumped Rauner into that category for abandoning an anti-abortion campaign pledge. . Tesla CEO Elon Musk made waves in 2021 when he announced that he was relocating the electric car giants headquarters from the tech hub of Silicon Valley in California to Austin, Texas. Pat Quinn lost reelection. And it was another rebuke of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Beto ORourke, who lost his third election in four years. A lot of people downstate feel thats whats happened.. Census: US population growth 2nd lowest in history, The nation's political center of gravity shifted further to the Republican-led South and West on Monday, with Texas, Florida and other Sun Belt states gaining congressional seats while chillier climes like New York and Ohio lost them. It doesnt matter if Im in Clay County, in Louisville, Ill. This election thus provides voters in the four states an opportunity to judge not only their governors, but also the blue or red agendas they represent. The races drew former President Bill Clinton and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, for the Democrats, while U.S. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-California, and Ronna McDaniel, chair of the Republican National Committee, stumped for Republicans. No Democratic-controlled state has passed any of those measures. Poshard said gun rights arguments and anti-abortion sentiment are issues that drown out most everything else in the region, including workplace-related gains that Democratic-favoring unions have long championed. (626) 376-1105, Kenneth P. Miller, J.D., Ph.D. Spencer, who has been involved in Democratic politics since the early 1990s, said his party affiliation has not been a helpful calling card for him in his community. Democrats, who have been advocating for expanding voter access and reproductive health, have made significant gains in Texas. A state with a higher urban population is going to be bluer than a state with a rural population. P odhorzer defines modern red and blue America as the states in which each party has usually held unified control of the governorship and state legislature in recent years. The state with the most outbound migration by population was California, with more than 343,000 people leaving the state. And downstate voters know it. Put another way, in an election that . Podhorzer defines modern red and blue America as the states in which each party has usually held unified control of the governorship and state legislature in recent years. Our survey asked respondents to describe their interest in moving as follows: Regardless of whether you will move, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move to another state, or would you rather remain in your current state? It turns out that lots of people are interested in moving, with partisan views contributing to the response. Now, if Glenn was to run for dog catcher against a cat, the cat would get 90% of the vote, said Spencer, who called Poshard a friend. Later, in a survey by WBEZ, he was among only a handful of Illinois legislators who would not publicly state their vaccination status. Deep in the heart of Texas somewhere between the starry desert nights of El Paso and the blooming sage of Beaumont is the steady beat of profound contradictions. Leading up to the 2022 midterms, much economic news has been troubling, especially regarding inflation. Pritzkers campaign has made clear it doesnt aim to cede any of that turf next November to whatever Republican prevails in the June 28, 2022 primary, and that it hopes to build on 2018s results. Nationally and in Illinois, thats concerning, Jacobson said. Nevertheless, unrest can express itself in other waysincluding thoughts of moving out of state. Even if Republicans arent seeing their map expanding into new territory like South Texas, they can still clearly count on rural voters to hold the line against waves of new and potentially liberal voters moving into Texas major cities, said Landry, the West Texas college professor. Democrats went from winning 43 counties in the 1998 governors race down to a dismal one county in the 2014 race, in which Democratic incumbent Gov. The great convergence of the mid-20th century may have been an anomaly. Were able to build the economy for areas like southern Illinois, where, lets face it, we want to bring population into.. Texas 2022 Elections Republican victories show Texas is still far from turning blue Republicans continued their 28-year dominance of statewide races but fell short of their hopes for a South. For example, Republicans include strong Republicans, not so strong (weak) Republicans, and independents who lean toward the Republican Party. Competing Visions in the Nation's Largest States The governors of the nation's four largest states, California, Texas, Florida, and New York, face voters in 2022. Housing is often more affordable in red states; partly for that reason, homelessness has become endemic in many big blue cities. In that year, the Republican Party was in power so the "blue states" were the states projected to go to incumbent Gerald Ford and the "red states" were projected to go to Democrat challenger Jimmy Carter. While two points might not seem like much, that tiny difference tells a compelling story. Similarly, 56% of Republicans in Texas and 48% of Republicans in Florida report that they are worse off or much worse off now than two years ago, yet nearly all Republicans in those states will line up to reelect Governors Abbott and DeSantis. To put the states seismic political weight into perspective, based on thecurrent electoral map, Democrats could loseArizona,Florida,Michigan,Ohio,Pennsylvaniaand Wisconsin and still take the White House if they won Texas. During the U.S. Presidential Election in 2000, journalist Tim Russert used the terms "red state" and "blue state" based on the colored maps used during his televised coverage of the election. The trend of population migration Democratically dominated blue states to Republican-controlled red states is examined in the documentary Blue to Red: The Shifting of America airing Sunday, at 9 p.m. Eastern on Newsmax. No, not a one-time blue but normally light red like North Carolina. Among Democrats, Newsom (7%) lags behind Vice President (and fellow Californian) Kamala Harris (14%) in the large field that includes Biden, and it is far from clear he would be willing to challenge either Harris or Biden. The reluctance extends beyond those interested. A purple state is one in which voters' support for the Democratic Party, represented by the color blue, and the Republican Party, represented by the color red, is about equal. For more information, visit www.roseinstitute.org. Lightyear (Feature) by Chris Evans Blu-ray . The MAGA movement is not stopping at the borders of the states it already controls, Podhorzer writes. In any event, our purpose is not predictive. But the big story remains that blue states are benefiting more as the nation transitions into a high-productivity, 21st-century information economy, and red states (apart from their major metropolitan centers participating in that economy) are suffering as the powerhouse industries of the 20th centuryagriculture, manufacturing, and fossil-fuel extractiondecline. Dave McKinney covers Illinois politics and government for WBEZ. Abbott began busing undocumented immigrants to other states last spring and has steered $4.4 billion toward his Operation Lone Star mission along the Texas-Mexico border moves that drove Democrats to accuse him of spending taxpayer money on political stunts. Nov. 9, 202212 AM Central. "Florida is a competitive battleground state in 2022," Executive Director Noam Lee said in a statement . To truly feel the effects of a demographic change, whether its young voters or new people coming in from perhaps more liberal states, people are going to have to turn out to vote, Cross said. Among likely voters: in California, 91% of Democrats are for Newsom; in New York, 89% of Democrats are for Hochul; in Texas, 95% of Republicans are for Abbott; and, in Florida, 97% of Republicans are for DeSantis. Rural Texas still rules the day. Well, I found out this morning, shes on a ventilator., When asked if he knows anyone who has succumbed to the illness, Spencer said, Oh yeah, I know a lot of people thats died from COVID.. Hundreds of Texans died and millions more lost power for days when the states electrical grid crashed during a snowstorm in 2021. The results highlight just how closely the country is split when selecting between governors who have developed two radically different state-level policy visions. The color purple represents their multi-faceted makeup. Not only arethese laws antithetical tothe popular will of constituents, they also disproportionately harmpeople of color like my family. The special examines how COVID-19 and the Draconian policies imposed by Democratic governors resulted in lawlessness, failed education, and botched public health policies. by J. Andrew Sinclair, Ph.D. & Kenneth P. Miller, J.D., Ph.D. DeSantis, wrote one Democratic respondent, is crazy.. The Blue States and the Red States are referred to as states of the U.S. whose voters predominantly choose either the Democratic Party (Blue) or Republican Party (Red) for Presidential and Senatorial Candidates. And one crucial element of that, he argues, is the return of what he calls one-party rule in the red nation.. A recent poll from Emerson College shows that a typically deep blue state may be on the verge of turning red after November. As with financial loss, however, concerns about quality of life are not causing members of the majority party to turn against their governors in either red or blue states. He won in remote downstate counties like Alexander, in more populated places like Peoria and Rock Island counties and in university-dominated counties like Champaign, Knox and DeKalb. Only 19%of Texas voters believe there is frequent voter fraud, yet lawmakers cemented Texas status as thehardestplace to vote in the country by restricting early voting options and empowering partisan poll watchers. American. Republicans also seemed poised to add slightly to their majorities in the Texas Legislature, where theyve controlled both chambers for 20 years, and held large leads in all statewide judicial races. kmiller@cmc.edu, Kravis Center, Fourth Floor The one South Texas congressional seat Republicans did claim, with the victory of Monica De La Cruz, was in a district drawn in 2021 to help a Republican win. The sudden shift could predict an upcoming red wave, but its too early in the race to say that with certainty. Limiting the moving choice has an obvious consequence: some of those nominally interested in leaving are not interested in leaving for any of these places, so they select their home state. The Texas I know is young, withnearly halfof the state being younger than 35. . Thats all theyre concerned about is guns and abortion.. Butthe Texas I know is Black and brown, withmore than 50% of the states population being Black, Latinoor Asian. The country's blue state exodus is shaking up demographics in red states that are serving as landing spots. Life expectancy is nearly three years greater in the blue (80.1 years) than the red (77.4) states. The NAR noted in its report that many of the areas that saw the most people relocating featured economies where the labor market had bounded back since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, which featured state and local governments across the United States shutting down or restricting business operations in an effort to quell the virus. Despite the supposed destiny predicted by the DNC, in 2020, Latinos . [2] Despite their vastly different approaches to the pandemic, economic challenges, and cultural conflict, all of these governors will almost certainly achieve the same result: reelection. Florida isn't bright red but a long-standing swing state. As measured on fronts including the January 6 insurrection, the procession of Republican 2020 election deniers running for offices that would provide them with control over the 2024 electoral machinery, and the systematic advance of a Republican agenda by the Supreme Court, the underlying political question of the 2020s remains whether majority ruleand democracy as weve known itcan survive this offensive. Tonight Texans sent a message that they want to keep the Lone Star State the beacon of opportunity that we provided over the past eight years, Abbott wrote on Twitter on Tuesday evening. Moreover, some Democrats reported a worsening financial situation and others a worsening quality of life; in California, for example, 1-in-3 Democrats thought that the quality of life was worse or that their personal financial situation was worse. The people in power, however, would rather not have you know that. More of the potential movers are motivated by what we categorized as personal reasons. It doesnt matter if Im in the inner city of Chicago. In this match-up, DeSantis barely edges out Newsom, 51-49%. This book examines how socio-cultural, demographic . It may be time to stop talking about red and blue America. Independent candidate Betsy Johnson managed to curry favor with 19% of pollsters by comparison. No Democratic candidate for governor has won more counties than Poshard since Dan Walker won the governorship in 1972. One of his early legislative moves was his co-sponsorship of a resolution that urged Congress to eject Chicago from Illinois and declare the city as the 51st state. People have many reasons for migrating from one state to another, including educational or job opportunities, comparative cost of living, or family connections. It seeks to conquer as much territory as possible by any means possible.. New York and New Jersey lost Congressional seats again, based on the 2020 Census. Beyond determining who will occupy governors' offices, these contests will shape our nation's direction in the coming years. At this early stage, all such choices are speculative. The Consumer Product Safety Commission announced it would ask the public for any information on potential hazards associ. One large medical recruiting firm said it recently had 20 obstetrician-gynecologists turn down positions in red states because of abortion laws. Sign up now to get the Washington Examiners breaking news and timely commentary delivered right to your inbox. The majority of people in these states have been voting for the Democratic Party for quite a few years now. The governor outperformed previous Democratic turnout in nearly every part of the state in 2018, and over the last four years has spent countless hours traveling to every corner of Illinois to ensure everyone feels represented by his administration, campaign spokeswoman Natalie Edelstein said. Those states are: California Conencticut Delaware Hawaii Illinois Maryland Massachusetts Minnesota New Jersey New Mexico New York Oregon Rhode Island Vermont Washington. Greg Abbott and dashing Democratic hopes that the state would turn purple. Get it Mar 13 - 28. In November 2020, when he ran for the Illinois Senate, he built on that margin, winning 77% of the vote. There was a lot of posturing by some Republicans that theyd hit the trifecta in South Texas by taking all three seats, so Democrats have felt maybe a tiny bit of relief at that, Cross said. Virginia remains a blue state because, all things being equal, in statewide federal races, the Democratic nominee starts off with a clear advantage. But so many of today's states have a partisan voting index . Voters returned GOP incumbents to their jobs at the top of the ticket and handed the states dominant party its 14th consecutive sweep of statewide offices. I would bet if you look across the Democrat Party and downstate Illinois youll find probably 50 to 60% of the precincts not even filled with committeemen, because that expectation that working in the rank-and-file of the party will result in some sort of help in getting a job isnt there anymore, he said. Predicting three states flipping blue to red, four or more Senate seats blue to red and at least 60 house seats blue to red. Red-state taxes are generally lower than their blue counterparts. As the distance widens between the two sections, she said, there are all kinds of potential for really deep disruptions, social disruptions, that arent just about our feelings and our opinions., To Podhorzer, the growing separation means that after the period of fading distinctions, bedrock differences dating back to the countrys founding are resurfacing. More lost power for days when the states it already controls, Podhorzer writes of state movers are by. 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